Episode 7 marks a format shift for the show: rather than a studio conversation, this episode — the first of a three-part series — is recorded live from Mountain Laurel Chalets' annual "A Night on Ski Mountain" event, held every year at the end of April at Ober Mountain in Gatlinburg. Tom Goodwin frames the gathering as the opposite of a sales event: about 100 homeowners and members of the broader Smoky Mountain vacation rental community in one room, looking at the same data, having the kind of honest conversation about this market that Tom says frankly doesn't happen often enough. The audio isn't studio-polished — there's ambient noise, a real room, real reactions — but it's the actual conversation that happened that night.
Tom opens Segment 1 by mapping out the vastly different landscape property owners now navigate compared to even a decade ago. He lays out five categories of ways a home can be managed today, several of which didn't exist ten years ago: hobby hosts (individual owners managing their own home on the side — a viable option, Tom says, if done professionally and with real local support, pointing to past guest Paula Elliott as an example); Airbnb Co-Hosts, a newer platform-designated role where an individual manages properties they don't own, fully dependent on Airbnb as a single channel; local operators — an estimated 35 or so recognizable local management companies, community-rooted and mostly state-licensed, with real variation in experience and quality; portfolio operators, a post-COVID category chasing scale (sometimes 250+ homes) with no local office and no on-the-ground presence, relying entirely on cleaners to report issues; and national brands — large, often private-equity or venture-funded operations managing thousands of properties, some of which, Tom notes, have recently and abruptly collapsed.
From there, Tom distills the conversation down to three questions he says every owner is really asking, whether they realize it or not: Will my property actually make money? Will my home actually be taken care of? And can I actually trust the people I'm working with? He walks through real, specific examples of portfolio operators quoting inflated gross revenue projections that don't survive contact with actual OTA fees, cleaning costs, and commission structures — including one five-bedroom house told to expect $96,000 that actually earned $12,000 in six months. On the second question, Tom contrasts Mountain Laurel Chalets' hands-on maintenance response (a hot water heater replaced within 15 minutes of failure) against the reality of an owner living out of state with a manager overseeing 250 homes and no local team.
The second half of the episode hands the data over to Corey Hawks, Mountain Laurel Chalets' COO, who walks the room through hard 2026 market numbers: Gatlinburg's enduring strength as a drive-to market for 80% of the U.S. population within an 8-hour radius; supply growth slowing from 8% to roughly 1% year-over-year against an estimated 21,600-plus active short-term rentals in the region; direct bookings climbing to 74–75% of Mountain Laurel Chalets' business; and a detailed, real-numbers case study of a single distressed five-bedroom property — "On the Rocks" — that the company took over, renovated, and grew from $9,238 in a down year to $24,351 in half a season. Corey closes with a candid read on where real competitive risk sits right now: one- and two-bedroom homes remain in good shape, three-bedrooms are getting genuinely competitive, and the four-bedroom category — inflated in part by sprinkler-code thresholds — has seen the most oversupply and the steepest discounting from owners who overpaid in 2021–2022 and are now racing to cover their mortgages.
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- Five ways a property can be managed today — and several didn't exist a decade ago. Tom outlines hobby hosts, Airbnb Co-Hosts, local operators (roughly 35 recognizable companies), post-COVID portfolio operators chasing scale with no local presence, and large national brands — several of which have collapsed or gone under recently.
- Three questions every owner is really asking. Will my property actually make money? Will my home actually be taken care of? And can I actually trust the people I'm working with? Tom argues most owners aren't asking these clearly enough, or aren't getting honest answers.
- Revenue projections can hide fees that never reach the owner. Tom describes portfolio operators quoting gross Airbnb revenue (including Airbnb's fee, laundry fee, and taxes) as if it were an owner's actual take — citing one five-bedroom home promised $96,000 that earned just $12,000 over six months.
- Local, hands-on maintenance is a real differentiator. Tom cites a hot water heater replaced within 15 minutes of failure as an example of responsiveness that isn't possible for an operator managing 250 homes with no local team on the ground.
- Gatlinburg remains a resilient drive-to market. Roughly 80% of the U.S. population lives within an 8-hour drive, a geographic advantage Corey Hawks credits with helping the market persevere through COVID, wildfires, and broader economic downturns.
- Supply growth has slowed dramatically. After 8% year-over-year growth in inventory in early 2025, that figure has dropped to roughly 1% in 2026, against an estimated 21,600-plus active short-term rentals already in the region.
- Direct bookings now make up 74–75% of Mountain Laurel Chalets' business, up from about 70% the prior year, with OTA commission share dropping from 29.3% to 25.8% of total bookings year-over-year.
- A real-numbers turnaround case study. A distressed five-bedroom property nicknamed "On the Rocks" was gutted and renovated by the Mountain Laurel Chalets team; after being closed for the first half of 2024, it reopened June 16th and earned $24,351 through year's end — up from a low of $9,238 the previous year.
- The four-bedroom category faces the steepest competition. Corey notes many recent builds cluster in the four-bedroom range partly to avoid sprinkler-system requirements that kick in at five bedrooms, leading to oversupply and aggressive rate-cutting from owners who overpaid for properties in 2021–2022 and are now discounting just to cover their mortgages.
- One- and two-bedroom homes remain a comparatively strong position, with three-bedroom competition intensifying and the largest oversupply concentrated in four- and five-bedroom properties.
